Tensions rise between SP and Congress ahead of the UP elections; will Congress weaken the ‘cycle’ and strengthen the ‘hand’? Five major signals emerge.

Himanshu Jain

However, now there are signs of tug‑of‑war between the two parties over seat sharing and political influence. The Congress’s demand for more seats and its attempts to strengthen the organization independently have raised questions about whether the party this time wants to build its own political base rather than relying on the SP.

1. Increased agitation over equal seat demand

Within the Congress, a demand has emerged to contest the Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections on an equal number of seats as the SP. Such statements by Congress leaders are being seen not merely as a demand for seats but as an attempt to increase the party’s political share in the state. Nevertheless, the top leadership of both parties has continued to speak of opposition unity.

2. Congress focuses on strengthening its organization

Instead of contesting elections solely on the basis of an alliance, the Congress is working on a strategy to expand its independent voter base in Uttar Pradesh. The party has made organizational changes and assigned responsibilities to new leaders. At the same time, emphasis is being placed on reaching young voters, especially Generation Z.

3. Focus on OBC and Dalit votes

In the Congress’s strategy, mobilising OBC and Dalit voters appears to be a crucial component. The party aims to increase its foothold among these social groups, where regional parties have traditionally held strong influence. The weakening of the Bahujan Samaj Party in Dalit politics is also being viewed by the Congress as an opportunity.

4. Political tug‑of‑war in western UP

Recent statements by Congress and SP leaders in western Uttar Pradesh have also raised doubts about the alliance’s solidity. After a public spat between Congress MP Imran Masood and SP MLA Aashu Malik in Saharanpur, the BJP targeted the opposition alliance.

5. Is the Congress charting a separate path from the SP?

Despite all these signals, it would be premature to say that the Congress has decided to contest entirely apart from the SP. In the current picture, the Congress is strengthening its organization and vote base on one hand, while on the other hand it appears to be trying to boost its bargaining power for a possible alliance and seat‑sharing agreement with the SP. The real question for political analysts is whether, as elections approach, the two parties will reach a seat‑sharing compromise or whether the contest will become a direct face‑to‑face battle.

If the Congress strengthens its organization and secures a share of seats equal to the SP’s, the opposition equation in Uttar Pradesh could change significantly. Conversely, if the alliance cracks, the division of anti‑BJP votes could affect the electoral outcome. For now, it is clear that, ahead of the 2027 battle, the fight over seats and political influence between “hand” and “bicycle” is intensifying.